Using active cases

Firstly, death rate is calculated having a base population of all infected cases (this is how it is done today). However, it should be done after all the cases had the outcome of the disease. Infected can have only two outcomes – survived or died.

But at the moment we have many cases without outcome which are still taken as the base. This means that out of all people who are currently infected, some still can die, and not survive as the assumption goes.

To show this logic clearer, let’s consider survival rate using the same logic – calculate the proportion of people who recovered from the disease, taking the percentage of all infected. Taking the data from March 11:

CFR = total death/total cases = 3.66%

This implies that survival rate should be the remainder of the 100%. So let’s first subtract the percentage from all the cases

Survival rate (difference with deaths) = 100% – 3.66% = 96.34%

Now, this is what the survival rate should be, if we accept that the death rate is calculated correctly. But let’s repeat the exercise using the same formula as for calculating CFR, but replacing deaths with survival. Will we get the same result?

Survival rate (based on total infected) = total recovered/total cases = 66,988/126,189 = 53.09%

Somehow survival rate doesn’t look so appealing anymore. It’s just slightly more than 50%. But this is still not an accurate measure.

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